Winning Stratgies استراتيجات فوركس

[abdellatif]

When forex traders anticipate this kind of situation, they become more inclined to
buy that high-interest-rate currency as well, knowing that there is likely to be
massive buying interest for that currency

For example, if the Fed announces a series of interest rate hikes in the US, whereas
the Bank of Japan has no intention to raise rates in Japan, there is bound to be more
buying interest for USD/JPY, thus pushing up the US dollar against the Japanese
yen, and even possibly against other currencies as well. This situation occurred in
2005, which caused USD/JPY to rally around 1900 pips from the start of the year
to December 2005, as you can see from Figure 5.2. This divergence in monetary
policy between the US and Japan had created a very bullish US dollar sentiment in
the market, attracting more and more traders to long USD/JPY

So, in general, rising interest rates in a country should boost the market sentiment
regarding the currency of that country
The opposite is true too: when interest rates are cut in a country, that would result
in quite a bearish sentiment regarding the currency of that country, and traders
.would be more willing to sell than buy that particular currency

[abdellatif]

When forex traders anticipate this kind of situation, they become more inclined to
buy that high-interest-rate currency as well, knowing that there is likely to be
massive buying interest for that currency

For example, if the Fed announces a series of interest rate hikes in the US, whereas
the Bank of Japan has no intention to raise rates in Japan, there is bound to be more
buying interest for USD/JPY, thus pushing up the US dollar against the Japanese
yen, and even possibly against other currencies as well. This situation occurred in
2005, which caused USD/JPY to rally around 1900 pips from the start of the year
to December 2005, as you can see from Figure 5.2. This divergence in monetary
policy between the US and Japan had created a very bullish US dollar sentiment in
the market, attracting more and more traders to long USD/JPY

So, in general, rising interest rates in a country should boost the market sentiment
regarding the currency of that country
The opposite is true too: when interest rates are cut in a country, that would result
in quite a bearish sentiment regarding the currency of that country, and traders
.would be more willing to sell than buy that particular currency

[abdellatif]

Economic growth

Besides interest rates, economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on
the overall currency market sentiment
Since the United States has the largest economy in the world, the US economy is a
key factor in determining the overall market sentiment, especially of currency pairs
that have the USD component. A robust economic expansion, coupled with a
healthy labour market, tends to boost consumer spending in that country, and this
helps companies and businesses to flourish. A country with a strong economy is in
a better position to attract more overseas investments into the country, as investors
.generally prefer to invest in a solid economy that is growing at a steady pace

Investments pouring into a country requires the currency of that country to be
bought in exchange of other currencies; this increased demand for that country’s
currency should cause that currency to strengthen against other currencies. Forex
traders, expecting this consequence, will put on their bullish cap to buy that
currency before the investors do

:Some of the most important indicators of a country’s economic growth include
1Gross Domestic Product (GDP
2the unemployment rate, and
3trade balance data
These are explained below

[abdellatif]

Economic growth

Besides interest rates, economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on
the overall currency market sentiment
Since the United States has the largest economy in the world, the US economy is a
key factor in determining the overall market sentiment, especially of currency pairs
that have the USD component. A robust economic expansion, coupled with a
healthy labour market, tends to boost consumer spending in that country, and this
helps companies and businesses to flourish. A country with a strong economy is in
a better position to attract more overseas investments into the country, as investors
.generally prefer to invest in a solid economy that is growing at a steady pace

Investments pouring into a country requires the currency of that country to be
bought in exchange of other currencies; this increased demand for that country’s
currency should cause that currency to strengthen against other currencies. Forex
traders, expecting this consequence, will put on their bullish cap to buy that
currency before the investors do

:Some of the most important indicators of a country’s economic growth include
1Gross Domestic Product (GDP
2the unemployment rate, and
3trade balance data
These are explained below

[abdellatif]

1GDP

The GDP measures the total value of all goods and services that are originated from
the country; the GDP figure indicates the rate of the country’s expansion or
contraction based on output and growth. A healthy GDP figure usually adds bullish
sentiment to the currency of that country, especially if it exceeds the market’s
expectations

2Unemployment rate

The unemployment data reports the state of the labour market of a country. The
lower the unemployment rate, the more positive it is for the country’s economy, and
hence its currency, as consumers would feel more confident about spending if they
have jobs, and that would eventually impact on companies and businesses in the
country, generating more output

3Trade balance data

Another widely watched economic indicator is the trade balance data. Trade
balance measures the difference between the value of imports and exports of goods
and services of a country. If a country exports more than it imports, it has a trade
surplus. If imports exceed exports, then the country will end up with a trade deficit
which does not bode well for that country’s currency because that currency has to
be sold to buy other foreign currencies in order to pay for those imported goods and
services

For example, if the US imports an increased amount of goods and services from
Europe, US dollars will have to be sold in exchange to buy euros to pay for those
imports. The resulting outflow of US dollars from the United States could
potentially cause a depreciation of the US dollar against the euro or other
currencies, and that can affect market sentiment surrounding the USD. The
opposite scenario is true for a country that is experiencing a trade surplus. However
market sentiment of a currency can still be bullish despite that country having a

trade deficit, as the net amount of trade deficit could be covered by an equivalent
or greater amount of capital investment pouring into that country, and thus would
not be a cause for concern

Geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a country’s foreign or domestic policy
affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or regional zone

Global geopolitical uncertainties such as terrorism, transitional change of
government or nuclear threats can cause investors to lose faith in some particular
currencies, and they may prefer to shift their assets into a safe haven currency when
these circumstances arise. Market sentiment is very sensitive to such geopolitical
developments, and can cause a strong bias towards a particular currency

For example, during periods of high tension in the Middle East in 2006, the market
formed a very bullish sentiment towards the US dollar, which became the preferred
currency to hold in such turbulent times, replacing the traditional status of the
Swiss franc as the safe haven currency. Forex traders should be keenly aware of the
current geopolitical environment in order to keep track of any potential change in
market sentiment, which could impact currency prices

[abdellatif]

1GDP

The GDP measures the total value of all goods and services that are originated from
the country; the GDP figure indicates the rate of the country’s expansion or
contraction based on output and growth. A healthy GDP figure usually adds bullish
sentiment to the currency of that country, especially if it exceeds the market’s
expectations

2Unemployment rate

The unemployment data reports the state of the labour market of a country. The
lower the unemployment rate, the more positive it is for the country’s economy, and
hence its currency, as consumers would feel more confident about spending if they
have jobs, and that would eventually impact on companies and businesses in the
country, generating more output

3Trade balance data

Another widely watched economic indicator is the trade balance data. Trade
balance measures the difference between the value of imports and exports of goods
and services of a country. If a country exports more than it imports, it has a trade
surplus. If imports exceed exports, then the country will end up with a trade deficit
which does not bode well for that country’s currency because that currency has to
be sold to buy other foreign currencies in order to pay for those imported goods and
services

For example, if the US imports an increased amount of goods and services from
Europe, US dollars will have to be sold in exchange to buy euros to pay for those
imports. The resulting outflow of US dollars from the United States could
potentially cause a depreciation of the US dollar against the euro or other
currencies, and that can affect market sentiment surrounding the USD. The
opposite scenario is true for a country that is experiencing a trade surplus. However
market sentiment of a currency can still be bullish despite that country having a

trade deficit, as the net amount of trade deficit could be covered by an equivalent
or greater amount of capital investment pouring into that country, and thus would
not be a cause for concern

Geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a country’s foreign or domestic policy
affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or regional zone

Global geopolitical uncertainties such as terrorism, transitional change of
government or nuclear threats can cause investors to lose faith in some particular
currencies, and they may prefer to shift their assets into a safe haven currency when
these circumstances arise. Market sentiment is very sensitive to such geopolitical
developments, and can cause a strong bias towards a particular currency

For example, during periods of high tension in the Middle East in 2006, the market
formed a very bullish sentiment towards the US dollar, which became the preferred
currency to hold in such turbulent times, replacing the traditional status of the
Swiss franc as the safe haven currency. Forex traders should be keenly aware of the
current geopolitical environment in order to keep track of any potential change in
market sentiment, which could impact currency prices

[abdellatif]

Ways of Measuring Market Sentiment

The mood of the market depends mainly on what the majority of traders think about
the current market situation. But how can you get an idea of the overall sentiment
of the market? You can do so by reading reports by analysts and financial
journalists in news wires or by visiting online trading forums to see what other
traders are discussing. However, these ways of getting a feel of the current market
sentiment are not too accurate; you may think that other traders are in a buying or
selling mood, but that may not be what is really happening in reality. Here are some
:of the more effective ways of gauging market sentiment

1The Commitment of Traders (COT) report

2The market’s reactions to news releases

These are explained in more details below

1Commitment Of Traders (COT) report

?What is the COT

The COT report provides traders with detailed positioning information about the
futures market, and is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated tools that forex
traders can make use of to enhance their trading performance

The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) in the United States every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time, and
records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous
Tuesday. Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website
(www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm)

There are basically two types of reports available: the futures-only COT report and
the futures-and-options-combined COT report. I usually just access the futuresonly
report for a glimpse of what has happened in the futures dimension of the
forex market. In order to get through to the currency futures data, you have to wade
past other commodities like milk, feeder cattle and so on, so a little patience is
required

Even though the data arrives three days late, the information nonetheless can be
helpful since many traders spend their weekend analyzing the COT report. The time
lag between reporting and release is the main handicap of the COT data, but despite
this limitation, you can still use it as a sentiment tool

(Figure 5.3 shows a page from the December 19, 2006, COT report (short format
displaying data for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Euro FX futures contract
You can see the long and short positions held by traders in each of the three main
categories defined by the CFTC, as explained below



يتبع..

[abdellatif]

Ways of Measuring Market Sentiment

The mood of the market depends mainly on what the majority of traders think about
the current market situation. But how can you get an idea of the overall sentiment
of the market? You can do so by reading reports by analysts and financial
journalists in news wires or by visiting online trading forums to see what other
traders are discussing. However, these ways of getting a feel of the current market
sentiment are not too accurate; you may think that other traders are in a buying or
selling mood, but that may not be what is really happening in reality. Here are some
:of the more effective ways of gauging market sentiment

1The Commitment of Traders (COT) report

2The market’s reactions to news releases

These are explained in more details below

1Commitment Of Traders (COT) report

?What is the COT

The COT report provides traders with detailed positioning information about the
futures market, and is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated tools that forex
traders can make use of to enhance their trading performance

The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) in the United States every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time, and
records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous
Tuesday. Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website
(www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm)

There are basically two types of reports available: the futures-only COT report and
the futures-and-options-combined COT report. I usually just access the futuresonly
report for a glimpse of what has happened in the futures dimension of the
forex market. In order to get through to the currency futures data, you have to wade
past other commodities like milk, feeder cattle and so on, so a little patience is
required

Even though the data arrives three days late, the information nonetheless can be
helpful since many traders spend their weekend analyzing the COT report. The time
lag between reporting and release is the main handicap of the COT data, but despite
this limitation, you can still use it as a sentiment tool

(Figure 5.3 shows a page from the December 19, 2006, COT report (short format
displaying data for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Euro FX futures contract
You can see the long and short positions held by traders in each of the three main
categories defined by the CFTC, as explained below



يتبع..

[abdellatif]

Commercial

This group consists of market participants who use the futures contracts for
hedging purposes, and these commercial participants are generally exporters and
importers who are hedging against currency fluctuations. For example, a German
car-maker, who exports to the US, expects to receive 10 million euros worth of
sales within the next quarter. To hedge against the possibility of a US dollar
decline which would affect the amount of euros it would receive once converted
the German car-maker would short 10 million in Euro FX futures. On the other
hand, if a US car manufacturer exports 10 million US dollars worth of cars within
the next quarter, it would long the equivalent in Euro FX futures contracts

Non-commercial

This group consists of large speculators such as hedge funds, banks and so on
who use currency futures just for speculation

Non-reportable

.This group consists of small speculators like retail traders

The COT report tells you the long and short positions undertaken by participants from
each category.When it comes to analyzing information pertaining to currency futures
in the COT report, it is generally more relevant for traders to focus on the noncommercial
participants rather than on the commercial participants. The reason
behind this is that these large speculators trade the futures contractsmainly for profits
and do not have the intention to take delivery of the underlying asset, which in this
case would be cash. On the other hand, commercial participants tend to maintain and
roll over the same amount of contracts from month to month for hedging purposes

even though these positions could be in losses. Large speculators, however, will
.usually close their losing positions instead of rolling them over to the next month

?Why use The COT

The COT report allows you to gauge market sentiment in the currency futures
market, which also influences the spot forex market. Currency futures are basically
spot prices which are adjusted by the forwards (derived by interest rate
differentials) to arrive at a future delivery price. Unlike spot forex which does not
have a centralised exchange at the time of writing, currency futures are cleared at
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Price quotation

One of the many differences between spot forex and currency futures lies in their
quoting convention. In the currency futures market, currency futures are mostly
quoted as the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. For example, Swiss
francs are quoted versus the US dollar in futures, unlike the USD/CHF notation in
the spot forex market. So if the Swiss franc falls in value against the US dollar
USD/CHF will rise, and the Swiss franc futures will fall. On the other hand
EUR/USD in spot forex is quoted in the same way as Euro futures, so if the Euro
.appreciates in value, Euro futures will rise just like EUR/USD will go up

That said, spot forex and currency futures do have one similarity: the spot and
futures prices of a currency tend to move in tandem. When either the spot or futures
price of a currency rises, the other also tends to rise, and when either falls, the other
also tends to fall. For example, if the GBP futures price goes up, spot GBP/USD
goes up (because GBP gains in strength). However, if the CHF futures price goes
up, spot USD/CHF goes down (because CHF gains in strength), as both the spot
and futures prices of CHF move in tandem

[abdellatif]

Commercial

This group consists of market participants who use the futures contracts for
hedging purposes, and these commercial participants are generally exporters and
importers who are hedging against currency fluctuations. For example, a German
car-maker, who exports to the US, expects to receive 10 million euros worth of
sales within the next quarter. To hedge against the possibility of a US dollar
decline which would affect the amount of euros it would receive once converted
the German car-maker would short 10 million in Euro FX futures. On the other
hand, if a US car manufacturer exports 10 million US dollars worth of cars within
the next quarter, it would long the equivalent in Euro FX futures contracts

Non-commercial

This group consists of large speculators such as hedge funds, banks and so on
who use currency futures just for speculation

Non-reportable

.This group consists of small speculators like retail traders

The COT report tells you the long and short positions undertaken by participants from
each category.When it comes to analyzing information pertaining to currency futures
in the COT report, it is generally more relevant for traders to focus on the noncommercial
participants rather than on the commercial participants. The reason
behind this is that these large speculators trade the futures contractsmainly for profits
and do not have the intention to take delivery of the underlying asset, which in this
case would be cash. On the other hand, commercial participants tend to maintain and
roll over the same amount of contracts from month to month for hedging purposes

even though these positions could be in losses. Large speculators, however, will
.usually close their losing positions instead of rolling them over to the next month

?Why use The COT

The COT report allows you to gauge market sentiment in the currency futures
market, which also influences the spot forex market. Currency futures are basically
spot prices which are adjusted by the forwards (derived by interest rate
differentials) to arrive at a future delivery price. Unlike spot forex which does not
have a centralised exchange at the time of writing, currency futures are cleared at
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Price quotation

One of the many differences between spot forex and currency futures lies in their
quoting convention. In the currency futures market, currency futures are mostly
quoted as the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. For example, Swiss
francs are quoted versus the US dollar in futures, unlike the USD/CHF notation in
the spot forex market. So if the Swiss franc falls in value against the US dollar
USD/CHF will rise, and the Swiss franc futures will fall. On the other hand
EUR/USD in spot forex is quoted in the same way as Euro futures, so if the Euro
.appreciates in value, Euro futures will rise just like EUR/USD will go up

That said, spot forex and currency futures do have one similarity: the spot and
futures prices of a currency tend to move in tandem. When either the spot or futures
price of a currency rises, the other also tends to rise, and when either falls, the other
also tends to fall. For example, if the GBP futures price goes up, spot GBP/USD
goes up (because GBP gains in strength). However, if the CHF futures price goes
up, spot USD/CHF goes down (because CHF gains in strength), as both the spot
and futures prices of CHF move in tandem

[abdellatif]

Using extreme positioning

In the COT report, under each type of currency futures, you can see that the total
contract volume in each category is split up between “long”, “short” and “spreads”
of which the first two are relevant to our analysis. What is of concern to us is
whether the non-commercials are net long or short in that currency futures
In order to determine the volume of contracts that these large speculators are
holding net long or short positions of for that particular currency futures, you just
need to calculate the difference between the longs and shorts, that is, subtract the
number of short contracts from the number of long contracts. A positive figure
shows the number of net long contracts, while a negative figure shows the number
of net short contracts

As you can see in Figure 5.4, the open interest for GBP futures on Tuesday December
19, 2006, was 149,800 contracts which was a decrease of 31,780 contracts from the

previous week. The non-commercials are long 98,434 contracts and short 12,836
(contracts. Therefore, they are overall net long 85,598 contracts (98434 - 12836

[abdellatif]

Using extreme positioning

In the COT report, under each type of currency futures, you can see that the total
contract volume in each category is split up between “long”, “short” and “spreads”
of which the first two are relevant to our analysis. What is of concern to us is
whether the non-commercials are net long or short in that currency futures
In order to determine the volume of contracts that these large speculators are
holding net long or short positions of for that particular currency futures, you just
need to calculate the difference between the longs and shorts, that is, subtract the
number of short contracts from the number of long contracts. A positive figure
shows the number of net long contracts, while a negative figure shows the number
of net short contracts

As you can see in Figure 5.4, the open interest for GBP futures on Tuesday December
19, 2006, was 149,800 contracts which was a decrease of 31,780 contracts from the

previous week. The non-commercials are long 98,434 contracts and short 12,836
(contracts. Therefore, they are overall net long 85,598 contracts (98434 - 12836

[abdellatif]

Usually, when a particular currency is trending up against the US dollar, the noncommercials
tend to register a net long position since these large speculators tend
to ride on the existing trend. The opposite situation is true too: the non-commercials
tend to register a net short position when a particular currency is trending down
against the US dollar. Knowing whether this category has been net long or short a
few days ago only indicates to us the positioning in retrospect; this information is
only useful if you compare the latest net positioning with the positioning figures
from the past few weeks or months

By comparing the latest net positioning with that of the past few weeks or months
you can tell if the latest net long or net short positioning is skewing towards an
extreme reading. My observation of the financial markets is that dramatic price
moves, usually at major turning points, tend to occur when the majority of the market
is positioned incorrectly. And since the large speculators are more inclined to close
their losing positions than the commercial hedgers, it is beneficial for us to keep an
eye on their net directional positioning as well as their net contract volume in the
currency futures market. If these large non-commercials are positioned on the wrong
side of the market, you can expect liquidation of these positions, with the extent of
liquidation depending on the total volume of contracts traded in the wrong direction

For example, if these large funds are holding large (extreme) net long GBP
positions, but GBP is declining against the US dollar due to some external catalysts
like news, they will eventually have to close their longs when their stops are

triggered, or decide to close their longs before getting stopped out and switch to
shorting GBP on the way down. Such mass unwinding of positions tends to bring
about a powerful price move in the opposite direction which could last for a few
days, and it is this turning point that you could detect with the COT data before the
reversal scene actually plays out

Example: COT – using extreme position

17,2006-An example of this was played out in the week through November 13
. The COT report that was released on November 10
showed that, as of the previous Tuesday on November 7, large
speculative funds upped their net GBP longs to a multi-year high of
+84,280 contracts, a figure which clearly shows up as an extreme
positioning on the chart as shown in Figure 5.5

In this case, all those who had the intention to go long on GBP had
already done so. As a result of this extreme net speculative
positioning of GBP longs on the CME, GBP/USD in the spot market
proceeded to decline by more than 300 pips in the following week
.through November 13-17, 2006 (Figure 5.6

This chart shows the net speculative (

non-commercial) positions in GBP
futures on the CME. X-axis displays the dates for every three weeks even
though the data for every week is shown on the chart. Y-axis displays the net
number of speculative contracts. Positive numbers indicate net long
positioning, while negative numbers indicate net short positioning

[abdellatif]

Usually, when a particular currency is trending up against the US dollar, the noncommercials
tend to register a net long position since these large speculators tend
to ride on the existing trend. The opposite situation is true too: the non-commercials
tend to register a net short position when a particular currency is trending down
against the US dollar. Knowing whether this category has been net long or short a
few days ago only indicates to us the positioning in retrospect; this information is
only useful if you compare the latest net positioning with the positioning figures
from the past few weeks or months

By comparing the latest net positioning with that of the past few weeks or months
you can tell if the latest net long or net short positioning is skewing towards an
extreme reading. My observation of the financial markets is that dramatic price
moves, usually at major turning points, tend to occur when the majority of the market
is positioned incorrectly. And since the large speculators are more inclined to close
their losing positions than the commercial hedgers, it is beneficial for us to keep an
eye on their net directional positioning as well as their net contract volume in the
currency futures market. If these large non-commercials are positioned on the wrong
side of the market, you can expect liquidation of these positions, with the extent of
liquidation depending on the total volume of contracts traded in the wrong direction

For example, if these large funds are holding large (extreme) net long GBP
positions, but GBP is declining against the US dollar due to some external catalysts
like news, they will eventually have to close their longs when their stops are

triggered, or decide to close their longs before getting stopped out and switch to
shorting GBP on the way down. Such mass unwinding of positions tends to bring
about a powerful price move in the opposite direction which could last for a few
days, and it is this turning point that you could detect with the COT data before the
reversal scene actually plays out

Example: COT – using extreme position

17,2006-An example of this was played out in the week through November 13
. The COT report that was released on November 10
showed that, as of the previous Tuesday on November 7, large
speculative funds upped their net GBP longs to a multi-year high of
+84,280 contracts, a figure which clearly shows up as an extreme
positioning on the chart as shown in Figure 5.5

In this case, all those who had the intention to go long on GBP had
already done so. As a result of this extreme net speculative
positioning of GBP longs on the CME, GBP/USD in the spot market
proceeded to decline by more than 300 pips in the following week
.through November 13-17, 2006 (Figure 5.6

This chart shows the net speculative (

non-commercial) positions in GBP
futures on the CME. X-axis displays the dates for every three weeks even
though the data for every week is shown on the chart. Y-axis displays the net
number of speculative contracts. Positive numbers indicate net long
positioning, while negative numbers indicate net short positioning

[abdellatif]

In the week following the extreme net long speculative positioning, reflected
by the COT data, GBP/USD fell by 310 pips as seen on this 60-min chart

The presence of an extreme reading allows you to be prepared for a possible trend
reversal which could occur when large speculators liquidate their positions. A mere
increase or decrease of contracts for a particular currency futures does not indicate
anything which could be of predictive value, as it simply shows you what has
happened, but not what could possibly happen in a high-probability scenario

COT data is a diamond in the rough

What deters many traders from using the COT report is its raw organisation of data
but that is not good enough an excuse to completely neglect this little treasure trove
The information from the COT report can be transferred into a spreadsheet so that
further analysis can be conducted in a more suitable format

The COT data itself is not sufficient to generate entry or exit signals, as the report
does not consist of currency price data, but it can generate warning signals of a
possible turn ahead in the spot forex market, and can be used to optimise other
trading strategies you may have so that maximum profits can be reaped from the
market. Analysis of the COT report does not always throw up trading opportunities
in the spot forex market, but when it does, you will be better prepared for a
potential turn of tide, and be more confident in your trades. Even though entries and
exits cannot be timed solely based on the COT data, it can be an extremely useful
.tool to have in your toolbox to gauge the overall market sentiment

2Market’s reactions to news
يتبع..

[abdellatif]

In the week following the extreme net long speculative positioning, reflected
by the COT data, GBP/USD fell by 310 pips as seen on this 60-min chart

The presence of an extreme reading allows you to be prepared for a possible trend
reversal which could occur when large speculators liquidate their positions. A mere
increase or decrease of contracts for a particular currency futures does not indicate
anything which could be of predictive value, as it simply shows you what has
happened, but not what could possibly happen in a high-probability scenario

COT data is a diamond in the rough

What deters many traders from using the COT report is its raw organisation of data
but that is not good enough an excuse to completely neglect this little treasure trove
The information from the COT report can be transferred into a spreadsheet so that
further analysis can be conducted in a more suitable format

The COT data itself is not sufficient to generate entry or exit signals, as the report
does not consist of currency price data, but it can generate warning signals of a
possible turn ahead in the spot forex market, and can be used to optimise other
trading strategies you may have so that maximum profits can be reaped from the
market. Analysis of the COT report does not always throw up trading opportunities
in the spot forex market, but when it does, you will be better prepared for a
potential turn of tide, and be more confident in your trades. Even though entries and
exits cannot be timed solely based on the COT data, it can be an extremely useful
.tool to have in your toolbox to gauge the overall market sentiment

2Market’s reactions to news
يتبع..

[م.نادر فريد]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة abdellatif

	شكرا لمروركم..واتمنى لكم متابعة مفيدة والتي انا على يقين ان من طبق ماسيتابعه هنا سيكون من المتداولين الناجحين ان شاء الله..

وأنا ايضا على يقين ...خصوصا بعد قراءة المشاركات الأخيرة ... الموضوع يعرفنا كيف يفكر ويتصرف ويتاجر صناع السوق وكيفية اللحاق بهم ... موضوع ممتاز .

[م.نادر فريد]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة abdellatif

	شكرا لمروركم..واتمنى لكم متابعة مفيدة والتي انا على يقين ان من طبق ماسيتابعه هنا سيكون من المتداولين الناجحين ان شاء الله..

وأنا ايضا على يقين ...خصوصا بعد قراءة المشاركات الأخيرة ... الموضوع يعرفنا كيف يفكر ويتصرف ويتاجر صناع السوق وكيفية اللحاق بهم ... موضوع ممتاز .

[abdellatif]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة م.نادر فيليب

	وأنا ايضا على يقين ...خصوصا بعد قراءة المشاركات الأخيرة ... الموضوع يعرفنا كيف يفكر ويتصرف ويتاجر صناع السوق وكيفية اللحاق بهم ... موضوع ممتاز .

ممتاز و فوق الممتاز ياهندسة..سنتطرق بكثرة لحركة صناع السوق الماكرين و في الفقرات القادمة سنتابع كيف يعملون ليربحو من جيوب المتداولين من خلال الكسر الوهمي للترندات و الدعوم و المقاومات..صناع السوق فعلا ماكرين في متاجرتهم..

[abdellatif]

	المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة م.نادر فيليب

	وأنا ايضا على يقين ...خصوصا بعد قراءة المشاركات الأخيرة ... الموضوع يعرفنا كيف يفكر ويتصرف ويتاجر صناع السوق وكيفية اللحاق بهم ... موضوع ممتاز .

ممتاز و فوق الممتاز ياهندسة..سنتطرق بكثرة لحركة صناع السوق الماكرين و في الفقرات القادمة سنتابع كيف يعملون ليربحو من جيوب المتداولين من خلال الكسر الوهمي للترندات و الدعوم و المقاومات..صناع السوق فعلا ماكرين في متاجرتهم..