اخبار و تحليلات متنوعة

[houssam1012]

السلام عليكم

هذه بعص الاخبار و التحليلات على مختلف العملات

[houssam1012]

السلام عليكم

هذه بعص الاخبار و التحليلات على مختلف العملات

[houssam1012]

AUD/USD extends the upside despite mixed data

The Aussie dollar is the best perfomer against the greenback on Thursday, extending its positive momentum, after the Employment Change in Australia posted +14.5K, beating forecasts at +3.75K and way up August’s -9.1K. The unemployment rate however, rose to 5.4% from 5.1%. Continuing with the data October Consumer Inflation Expectation rose 2.6% from 2.4%.

I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, says “prices are staging shallow recovery followeing a test support at 1.0136… Initial falling channel resistance is at 1.0279, a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fib at 1.0322. A push above that exposes major trend line resistance at 1.0537. Alternatively, a reversal through support aims for the 50% expansión at 0.9986”.

AUD/USD is advancing 0.38% at 1.0273 as of writing, with the next resistance at 1.0292 (hourly lows Oct.2) followed by 1.0325 (low. Oct.1) then 1.0342 (MA200d) and 1.0366 (MA21d).
On the other hand, a breach of 1.0210 (hourly high/lows Oct.10) would expose 1.0175 (low Oct.9) then 1.0149 (low Oct.8) and 1.0123 (low Jul.13).

[houssam1012]

AUD/USD extends the upside despite mixed data

The Aussie dollar is the best perfomer against the greenback on Thursday, extending its positive momentum, after the Employment Change in Australia posted +14.5K, beating forecasts at +3.75K and way up August’s -9.1K. The unemployment rate however, rose to 5.4% from 5.1%. Continuing with the data October Consumer Inflation Expectation rose 2.6% from 2.4%.

I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, says “prices are staging shallow recovery followeing a test support at 1.0136… Initial falling channel resistance is at 1.0279, a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fib at 1.0322. A push above that exposes major trend line resistance at 1.0537. Alternatively, a reversal through support aims for the 50% expansión at 0.9986”.

AUD/USD is advancing 0.38% at 1.0273 as of writing, with the next resistance at 1.0292 (hourly lows Oct.2) followed by 1.0325 (low. Oct.1) then 1.0342 (MA200d) and 1.0366 (MA21d).
On the other hand, a breach of 1.0210 (hourly high/lows Oct.10) would expose 1.0175 (low Oct.9) then 1.0149 (low Oct.8) and 1.0123 (low Jul.13).

[houssam1012]

USD/CHF back to 0.9400

From a first rise back to 0.9400 ground, the USD/CHF was capped at 0.9419 in the Asian morning and plunged to 0.9389, where it spent the rest of the session, before retesting 0.9400 on the German CPI inflation report and European flows.

The German data came in line with consensus, unchanged on the month of September, with the annualized figure softening from +2.1% to +2.0%. The EU normalized CPI report in France softened to +2.2%, instead of rising from +2.4% to +2.5% in September. The monthly change was a -0.3% contraction, below the unchanged consensus.

“Assuming a close is seen above the downtrend and the 1st October high at 0.9438, we should see the market base and head higher to initially 0.9520 then 0.9600/35, the 50% retracement”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones.

[houssam1012]

USD/CHF back to 0.9400

From a first rise back to 0.9400 ground, the USD/CHF was capped at 0.9419 in the Asian morning and plunged to 0.9389, where it spent the rest of the session, before retesting 0.9400 on the German CPI inflation report and European flows.

The German data came in line with consensus, unchanged on the month of September, with the annualized figure softening from +2.1% to +2.0%. The EU normalized CPI report in France softened to +2.2%, instead of rising from +2.4% to +2.5% in September. The monthly change was a -0.3% contraction, below the unchanged consensus.

“Assuming a close is seen above the downtrend and the 1st October high at 0.9438, we should see the market base and head higher to initially 0.9520 then 0.9600/35, the 50% retracement”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones.

[houssam1012]

EUR/GBP drops to 0.8030

The EUR/GBP has been held in tight consolidation Thursday, trading between a tightened range of 25 pips (0.8022 intraday minimum, 0.8047 intraday maximum). Amidst this seemingly sideways movement one day removed from a fresh downgrade of Spain, the pair has settled in the region of 0.8030 on the heels of economic data in the Eurozone, principally Spain in recent moments.

The cross is now entrenched in negative territory this morning during European trading, vastly underperforming both its 50 and 100-hourly SMA (down -15 pips and -27 pips respectively). Furthermore, at the time of writing the pair is incurring a loss of -0.18% on the day.

In Spain, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) grew only +3.4% in the month of September, missing consensus expectations of +3.5%. Conversely, the Consumer Price Index (MoM) advanced only +1.0% in September, against an expected rise of +1.1%. Finally the HCIP (YoY) yielded a result of +3.5% in September, which was precisely in line with expectations.

From a technical perspective, Mataf.net analysts highlight the additional propensity of supports at 0.8013, the 0.7999, and finally 0.7974. On the ascension, a break above 0.8052 will initiate added resistive means at 0.8077 and 0.8091

[houssam1012]

EUR/GBP drops to 0.8030

The EUR/GBP has been held in tight consolidation Thursday, trading between a tightened range of 25 pips (0.8022 intraday minimum, 0.8047 intraday maximum). Amidst this seemingly sideways movement one day removed from a fresh downgrade of Spain, the pair has settled in the region of 0.8030 on the heels of economic data in the Eurozone, principally Spain in recent moments.

The cross is now entrenched in negative territory this morning during European trading, vastly underperforming both its 50 and 100-hourly SMA (down -15 pips and -27 pips respectively). Furthermore, at the time of writing the pair is incurring a loss of -0.18% on the day.

In Spain, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) grew only +3.4% in the month of September, missing consensus expectations of +3.5%. Conversely, the Consumer Price Index (MoM) advanced only +1.0% in September, against an expected rise of +1.1%. Finally the HCIP (YoY) yielded a result of +3.5% in September, which was precisely in line with expectations.

From a technical perspective, Mataf.net analysts highlight the additional propensity of supports at 0.8013, the 0.7999, and finally 0.7974. On the ascension, a break above 0.8052 will initiate added resistive means at 0.8077 and 0.8091

[houssam1012]

Spanish downgrade fallout – UBS

At the end of the US session yesterday, S&P downgraded Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to BBB-. In the aftermath of this movement, the EUR/USD was slow to react, but eventually fell 30 pips. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The ratings agency cited deepening economic recession and rising unemployment, which are limiting the government's policy options and adding to the frictions between the central and regional governments.”

S&P further noted that the hesitation of the government to request a bailout increases the downside risks to Spain's rating, which remains on negative outlook. “We think the announcement has hurt the euro as much as it is going to though, given that no important levels in the ratings table were crossed and that the downgrade arguably marginally raises the likelihood that Spain will request a rescue sooner rather than later, which would fulfill one of the necessary conditions for the ECB to begin bond buying.” Berry adds.

[houssam1012]

Spanish downgrade fallout – UBS

At the end of the US session yesterday, S&P downgraded Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to BBB-. In the aftermath of this movement, the EUR/USD was slow to react, but eventually fell 30 pips. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The ratings agency cited deepening economic recession and rising unemployment, which are limiting the government's policy options and adding to the frictions between the central and regional governments.”

S&P further noted that the hesitation of the government to request a bailout increases the downside risks to Spain's rating, which remains on negative outlook. “We think the announcement has hurt the euro as much as it is going to though, given that no important levels in the ratings table were crossed and that the downgrade arguably marginally raises the likelihood that Spain will request a rescue sooner rather than later, which would fulfill one of the necessary conditions for the ECB to begin bond buying.” Berry adds.

[houssam1012]

Breaking down the S&P downgrade in Spain

According to Macro Strategy Analyst J. Reid at Deutsche Bank, “With the ECB liquidity program on standby it's unlikely markets will aggressively sell-off in the near-term, however we can't help thinking that we will remain in a mild risk-off phase until Spain requests aid.”

On this theme S&P downgraded the sovereign 2 notches last night after the US closing bell) to BBB- outlook remains Negative. In addition, “S&P had a higher rating to start relative to Moody's (Baa3/review for possible downgrade) and Fitch (BBB/Neg) so the magnitude of the cut overnight perhaps shouldn't be seen as a huge surprise.” Reid notes. In terms of commentary, S&P stated "The negative outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view of the significant risks to Spain's economic growth and budgetary performance, and the lack of a clear direction in euro-zone policy".

They also added "The deepening economic recession is limiting the Spanish government's policy options." Much is resting on how close Spain gets to its growth and budget targets next year, not just the rating but it will probably be a review point for any future ECB bond buying program.

[houssam1012]

Breaking down the S&P downgrade in Spain

According to Macro Strategy Analyst J. Reid at Deutsche Bank, “With the ECB liquidity program on standby it's unlikely markets will aggressively sell-off in the near-term, however we can't help thinking that we will remain in a mild risk-off phase until Spain requests aid.”

On this theme S&P downgraded the sovereign 2 notches last night after the US closing bell) to BBB- outlook remains Negative. In addition, “S&P had a higher rating to start relative to Moody's (Baa3/review for possible downgrade) and Fitch (BBB/Neg) so the magnitude of the cut overnight perhaps shouldn't be seen as a huge surprise.” Reid notes. In terms of commentary, S&P stated "The negative outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view of the significant risks to Spain's economic growth and budgetary performance, and the lack of a clear direction in euro-zone policy".

They also added "The deepening economic recession is limiting the Spanish government's policy options." Much is resting on how close Spain gets to its growth and budget targets next year, not just the rating but it will probably be a review point for any future ECB bond buying program.

[houssam1012]

GBPUSD - Double Bottom and AB=CD Complete; Bullish

GBPUSD – Although upside pressure was posted in cable during the European session, investors sold the rally close to Tuesdays high. This resulted in the pair posting little net change for the day. However, a downside dip has been bought overnight and posted a bullish outside bar on the intraday chart. 1.5965, (38.2% pullback) is still a mild concern as market tend to trend towards these Fibonacci levels. Risk/reward is more than ample top call a Buy. Our call is bullish above a stop of 1.5974.
The profit targets are 1.6047, 1.6095 and towards 1.6129.

[houssam1012]

GBPUSD - Double Bottom and AB=CD Complete; Bullish

GBPUSD – Although upside pressure was posted in cable during the European session, investors sold the rally close to Tuesdays high. This resulted in the pair posting little net change for the day. However, a downside dip has been bought overnight and posted a bullish outside bar on the intraday chart. 1.5965, (38.2% pullback) is still a mild concern as market tend to trend towards these Fibonacci levels. Risk/reward is more than ample top call a Buy. Our call is bullish above a stop of 1.5974.
The profit targets are 1.6047, 1.6095 and towards 1.6129.

[houssam1012]

EURUSD looks headed to extend its decline

Even as a doji star has emerged ahead of near term support, EURUSD looks headed to extend its decline towards 1.2732 38.2% fib support. The notion is being reinforced by the major pair’s break through 1.2255-1.2500 ascending trendline. A close below the 1.2732 would force a test of 1.2596.

Support levels: 1.2835 1.2803 1.2745

Resistance levels: 1.2880 1.2910 1.2950

[houssam1012]

EURUSD looks headed to extend its decline

Even as a doji star has emerged ahead of near term support, EURUSD looks headed to extend its decline towards 1.2732 38.2% fib support. The notion is being reinforced by the major pair’s break through 1.2255-1.2500 ascending trendline. A close below the 1.2732 would force a test of 1.2596.

Support levels: 1.2835 1.2803 1.2745

Resistance levels: 1.2880 1.2910 1.2950

[houssam1012]

USD/JPY

Closing below 78.15 resistance, USDJPY is set for an extension lower through 77.79 support. A close below the support level would open scope for a retest of 77.50 support. Any retracement would see a test of 79.

Support levels: 78.10 77.90 77.65

Resistance levels: 78.50 78.80 79.10

[houssam1012]

USD/JPY

Closing below 78.15 resistance, USDJPY is set for an extension lower through 77.79 support. A close below the support level would open scope for a retest of 77.50 support. Any retracement would see a test of 79.

Support levels: 78.10 77.90 77.65

Resistance levels: 78.50 78.80 79.10

[houssam1012]

AUD/USD

Climbing higher for the fourth straight session, AUDUSD is advancing on the 1.0300 psychological figure. A close above the level would open scope for a move to 1.0333 38.2% fib resistance. Declines look to be limited by the 1.0148 October 8th low.

Support levels: 1.0200 1.0160 1.0120

Resistance levels: 1.0235 1.0270 1.0300

[houssam1012]

AUD/USD

Climbing higher for the fourth straight session, AUDUSD is advancing on the 1.0300 psychological figure. A close above the level would open scope for a move to 1.0333 38.2% fib resistance. Declines look to be limited by the 1.0148 October 8th low.

Support levels: 1.0200 1.0160 1.0120

Resistance levels: 1.0235 1.0270 1.0300