[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary

The EURUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement this week, made another Doji on weekly chart. Those Dojis in the last two weeks have lower highs and lows, indicating that the bearish bias since the fall from 1.4158 may still intact. Although the market is volatile and unclear where neither of bullish nor bearish can maintain momentum consistently, we still have a wide bearish channel after price violated the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below suggests that overall we are still in bearish phase after strong bullish momentum. About two hours ago, one of my subscribers asked me about the CCI. So I think it’s a good idea to look at the CCI during two different type of price movement lately. Let’s take a look at my h4 chart below. Look at CCI in blue circle. Since the beginning of the bullish run in mid-September, CCI has been moving consistently above 100 and if price made a bearish correction, CCI never fall below the zero line before moving up back above 100. At the same time, price also move to the upside smoothly inside the bullish channel. The combination of price action and CCI behavior reflects a clear and strong bullish movement, make trading is relatively easier as direction is clear and momentum is consistent. Now look at the CCI in red circle. CCI doesn’t consistently move above 100 or below -100. We still have a bearish channel but the fact that CCI can not consistently move below -100 suggest that the current bearish bias is still vulnerable. It also means that the bearish momentum since downside movement from 1.4158 still has no validation from the CCI and compared to what happened during the bullish momentum since mid-September, it is relatively harder to trade in the last couple of weeks. CCI, like any other modern indicators is not a god and should not be used as single tool to make trade decision. However, it is useful to see whether we have a good and solid momentum or not.
For the upcoming week, I will pay attention to the upper line of the bearish channel and 1.4000 resistance area. A clear break above 1.4000 and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could cancel the bearish outlook testing 1.4158 even 1.4400. Important support at 1.3800. Clear break below that area could continue the bearish bias testing 1.3700 and 1.3600. I hope we can see clearer direction and consistent momentum, bullish or bearish and consistent CCI above 100 or below -100.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary

The EURUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement this week, made another Doji on weekly chart. Those Dojis in the last two weeks have lower highs and lows, indicating that the bearish bias since the fall from 1.4158 may still intact. Although the market is volatile and unclear where neither of bullish nor bearish can maintain momentum consistently, we still have a wide bearish channel after price violated the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below suggests that overall we are still in bearish phase after strong bullish momentum. About two hours ago, one of my subscribers asked me about the CCI. So I think it’s a good idea to look at the CCI during two different type of price movement lately. Let’s take a look at my h4 chart below. Look at CCI in blue circle. Since the beginning of the bullish run in mid-September, CCI has been moving consistently above 100 and if price made a bearish correction, CCI never fall below the zero line before moving up back above 100. At the same time, price also move to the upside smoothly inside the bullish channel. The combination of price action and CCI behavior reflects a clear and strong bullish movement, make trading is relatively easier as direction is clear and momentum is consistent. Now look at the CCI in red circle. CCI doesn’t consistently move above 100 or below -100. We still have a bearish channel but the fact that CCI can not consistently move below -100 suggest that the current bearish bias is still vulnerable. It also means that the bearish momentum since downside movement from 1.4158 still has no validation from the CCI and compared to what happened during the bullish momentum since mid-September, it is relatively harder to trade in the last couple of weeks. CCI, like any other modern indicators is not a god and should not be used as single tool to make trade decision. However, it is useful to see whether we have a good and solid momentum or not.
For the upcoming week, I will pay attention to the upper line of the bearish channel and 1.4000 resistance area. A clear break above 1.4000 and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could cancel the bearish outlook testing 1.4158 even 1.4400. Important support at 1.3800. Clear break below that area could continue the bearish bias testing 1.3700 and 1.3600. I hope we can see clearer direction and consistent momentum, bullish or bearish and consistent CCI above 100 or below -100.