EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.2484 last week then turned sideway. INitial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.