USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 resumed by taking out 0.9710/20 last week. More important, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term revive and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.