Mid-Day Outlook
EUR/USD might have formed a temporary low at 1.4254 but another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.4440 minor resistance holds. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.