[m.youssif]

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.