[m.youssif]

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.