[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. ABove 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. ABove 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.