[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.