[m.youssif]

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.