[m.youssif]

WIth 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

WIth 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.