[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 was contained at 116.46, above mentioned 115.96 support and rebounded. Such pull back is likely finished and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 115.96 support holds but sustained break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 was contained at 116.46, above mentioned 115.96 support and rebounded. Such pull back is likely finished and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 115.96 support holds but sustained break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.