[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extends further to as low as 82.54 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper decline. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extends further to as low as 82.54 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper decline. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.