[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.