[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.