[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 135.80 last week and the break of 135.48 resistance suggests that 122.40 is the medium term bottom that we've been waiting for. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 133.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 135.80 last week and the break of 135.48 resistance suggests that 122.40 is the medium term bottom that we've been waiting for. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 133.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.