[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.