[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.