[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.