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Winning Stratgies استراتيجات فوركس
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالى وبركاته بسم الله الرحمان الرحيم Winning stratgies فكرة خطرت على بالي و ارى ان فيها افادة ان شاء الله لكل المتداولين المهتمين بالتعلم و المحبين لامتلاك سلح التعلم و هو الوسيلة الوحيدة للنجاح.. و رغبتي في المزيد من التعلم احببت ان ارفق في كل مرة مقتطفات من كتاب مفيد باللغة الانجليزية من البداية حتى النهاية للمتداول المبتدأ و المحترف.. بين كل فقرة سيكون هناك وقت مستقطع للفهم و تثبيت المعلومة..ولمن يريد التعلم و يناقش فهده هي الفرصة.. الباب مفتوح لمن اراد ترجمة كل فقرة يتم ارفاقها شرط ان تكون الترجمة دات جودة عالية.. فمرحبا بكم معنا هنا في هده الجولة التعليمية:1 (77): البداية Getting Started .Forex (or FX) refers to the foreign exchange markets, where currencies are traded It is the biggest and fastest growing financial market in the world, with an average daily turnover of almost $2 trillion – many times the total traded volume of the US .stock exchanges The forex market consists of a worldwide wired network of buyers and sellers of currencies, with trading all done over-the-counter (OTC), which means that there is no central exchange and clearinghouse where orders are matched. If you are looking for 24-hour action, you can find it in this global trading system, where no physical barriers exist and activity moves seamlessly from one major financial .centre to another A reason why there is a veil of mystery over forex is that the market was once the ,exclusive playground of banks, hedge funds, corporations and financial institutions ,where money changed hands for commercial and speculative purposes. However forex has now expanded and is easily accessible to all traders with the rapid emergence of online currency trading platforms. Many of these platforms are wellequipped with free charting software, real-time news-feeds and easy-to-use order placing systems The wide availability of sophisticated technology has spawned a whole new level of foreign exchange, where self-directed (so-called “retail”) traders can easily buy ,and sell currencies through an internet connection with a click of the mouse dealing with invisible counter-parties on the other side of the transaction. This group of people (also known as speculative traders) engage in trading forex for the sole purpose of making profits Welcome to the new world of online forex trading The rapid fluctuations of currency exchange rates are what attract speculators to the forex market as currencies are highly sensitive, and thus react very fast to changing economic conditions of countries or regions, changing interest rates and political happenings around the world. Sometimes central banks of countries attempt to intervene in the forex market if the policy-makers feel that their country’s currency is too strong or too weak for their own good. All these factors lead to high volatility of currency prices, which can be taken advantage of by traders who speculate on .the direction and magnitude of the current and future price move I would like to point out that while movements in certain currency pairs can be ,quite volatile in nature, most major currencies generally move less than 1% daily which is much lower than that of active stocks, which can easily move between5 10%per day. For a rough guide of currency pairs and their relative volatility, refer .to Figure 1.1 under “Warming Up” in the later part of this chapter Forex has increasingly become an extremely attractive alternative asset group for speculators to trade, in addition to the usual staple of stocks and futures Anyone can trade forex, but not every one can be profitable. That’s the rule of any game – not every one can win |
رد: Winning Stratgies
فعلا فكرة رائعة.. من المتابعين ان شاء الله...
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رد: Winning Stratgies
فكرة موفقة ان شاء الله . |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Trading Time Frames Before you enter into a position, you need to know – beforehand – when you are ,going to exit the market. A trader is not going to hold onto a position indefinitely that’s for sure. Knowing the time frame of how long you wish to hold onto your open position will determine your exit points and prices. If you choose to hold a position for, say, a week, your profit objective would naturally be higher than if you were to hold it for a few hours because you would expect the price to move further given the longer period of time This is a personal decision which has to be made by the trader, depending on his or her risk tolerance level, lifestyle desired, and the amount of time to be dedicated to analyzing the market :There are mainly four different types of trading time frames 1scalping 2day trading 3swing trading 4position trading :These are explained below 1Scalping This is the shortest time frame in trading; it exploits small changes in currency prices. It describes the ultra-rapid action of opening and closing of a position within a few seconds or minutes, with the aim of stealing a few pips from each trade. The profit of the winning trade is small, while the number of such winning trades should be big enough so that these small profits can add up to a decent amount Scalpers usually need to have access to the tightest spreads and fastest connection speeds possible, in order to carry out this bullet-speed trading with the tiny profits They tend to do this many times a day so as to accumulate the little profits that are harvested Losses must be limited such that one large loss does not wipe out the profits gained from many winning trades Many forex market makers discourage this type of trading as they find it difficult to cover the opposite side of the transactions, given the fast speed and numerous orders entered into their systems |
رد: Winning Stratgies
2Day trading Day trading is one of the more popular types of trading, whereby traders open and close positions within a day. They also do not hold their positions overnight because of the added risk of not knowing if prices would change dramatically while they sleep. The holding period of their trades may range from minutes to hours Day trading relies heavily on intraday momentum to bring the current price to the desired price level in one direction. Day traders are looking out for signs that a currency pair has a high probability of moving in a particular direction, going from point X to point Y, within a day regardless of whether the price is moving in a trend or range Day traders tend to wait for good trading opportunities, instead of trading frantically like scalpers tend to do. This style of trading involves intense concentration from the trader as positions must be closely monitored on the price charts 3Swing trading Swing traders hold their positions for a few days, but seldom more than a week Identifying and riding on trends early is the central objective of this trading style and the profit objective tends to be set higher than that of day trading since the swing trader is expecting that by holding out for a few days, there is a better chance of capturing a larger price move. Unlike the day trader, the swing trader has to endure overnight risk As swing trading requires much less minute-to-minute monitoring of the market .this type of trading is generally preferred by people who hold day jobs My opinion is that swing traders must still keep up-to-date with the latest fundamental and technical changes in the market, even when they are not .monitoring the market all the time 4Position trading Position trading spans the longest period of time, and refers to traders holding their position for weeks or even months. Position traders seek to identify and trade currency pairs that signal that a medium to long term trend is playing out – but will take more than a few days to play out. Their positions are usually closed before the trend runs out of power. This trading time frame is the least time-consuming one among all the different ones, as there is not much need for intensive monitoring. Many position traders place a trailing stop which automatically closes their position if the price retraces past a particular point Choosing a time-frame As a general rule of thumb: the smaller the time frame you trade then the more time is needed to be devoted to monitoring the markets Someone who day trades tends to be more in touch with the price swings and goings-on of the market as positions are opened and closed during the same day Whereas at the end of the spectrum, a position trader does not have to monitor the market so intensively Risk-wise, I would say that the longer the time frame used in trading, the more risk has to be assumed by the trader. This is simply because the market has more time to move against them, and can move much further against them than it can in a smaller time frame Many of the strategies mentioned in this book are meant for short-term trading However, you may decide on the length of your holding period to suit your personal preference by adjusting the profit target and stop-loss accordingly. Of course, the size of profit objective and stop-loss will be proportional to the length of your holding period – the shorter your time frame, the smaller your profit target and stop-loss should be; the longer the trading time frame, the wider your profit target .and stop-loss can be |
رد: Winning Stratgies
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شكرا لمروركم..واتمنى لكم متابعة مفيدة والتي انا على يقين ان من طبق ماسيتابعه هنا سيكون من المتداولين الناجحين ان شاء الله.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Strategy 1 Market Sentiment ? How do you view the forex market Do you see it as a big mechanical matrix which is devoid of emotionsOr do you think of it in mathematical and probability terms? Perhaps, you may even view it as just a vast network of computers which are designed to cheat the trader sitting in front of his or her computer and trading electronically. Most traders I know have a love-hate relationship with the forex market, thinking that the market is, in turn, either against them or for them To me, the forex market is nothing more than the compressed display of emotions at any one time emanating from currency speculators around the world. It is similar to a big living organism, like a human being, which is made up of numerous cells with each cell carrying out its own function and interacting with other cells of the body, working to keep the body alive with round-the-clock chemical and biological processes The forex market is alive as a macro living organism, which comprises a vast number of market participants acting out their perceptions and emotions, thus driving the blood around the invisible entity. The participation of each player whether the player is an institutional dealer or an independent trader, is akin to the individual functioning of a cell, which collectively will constitute the whole organism – the forex market in this case. Knowing what the market thinks and how it thinks is crucial to trading success because, ultimately, the trader is dealing with other traders out there, and needs to know what they are thinking. Even if you see the market as an enemy, what could be better than knowing the weak points and ?being able to read the mind of your adversary In this chapter, I shall focus on how you can better understand the market, and use .that knowledge as one of your trading weapons |
رد: Winning Stratgies
?What Is Market Sentiment Market sentiment is simply what the majority of the market is perceived to be thinking or feeling about the market – it is the most important factor that drives the currency market This is so because traders tend to act based on what they feel and think of certain currencies, regarding their strength or weakness relative to other currencies. I will assume that when you trade currencies, you don’t blindfold yourself to simply pick any pair to buy or sell, leaving it to randomness to determine your profit/loss statement at the end of the day or month Market sentiment sums up the overall dominating emotion of the majority of the market participants, and explains the current actions of the market, as well as the future course of actions of the market. The trend adopted by the forex market is actually a reflection of the current market sentiment, which in turn guides the .trading decisions of other traders, whether they should long or short a currency pair In the process of making educated trading decisions, traders have to weigh a multitude of factors which could influence the bias of a currency, before making up their minds about the current and future state of certain currencies. One thing to note is that market sentiment is not logical; it is primarily based on traders’ emotions, which is really one of the greatest, if not the greatest, factor in the determination of a currency exchange rate There are three main types of sentiment when it comes to forming opinions in the :forex market 1bullish 2bearish or 3just plain confused If the majority of the market wants to sell that currency, the market sentiment is deemed to be bearish; if the majority wants to buy that currency, the market sentiment is bullish; and when most market participants are unsure of what to do at the moment, the sentiment ends up being mixed. Since the US dollar is the currency on the opposite side of 80% of all foreign exchange transactions, most traders will be concerned with what the market thinks about the US dollar. Currency prices simply embody the market’s perceptions of reality and the sum total of traders’ emotions Market sentiment acts like a fickle lover, capable of changing its mind based on certain incoming new information which can upset the existing sentiment. One moment everyone could be buying the US dollar in anticipation of a stronger dollar; the next second they could all be dumping it as they fear the dollar would start to weaken due to the impact of some new piece of information, which is almost always some fundamental news Understanding the current market sentiment and exploiting it appropriately with the other strategies discussed in this book can help maximise your trading profits because if you can guess what the other market players are thinking about, and understand why the market is doing what it is doing, you will be in a better position to plan your entry and exit points and timing |
رد: Winning Stratgies
What Factors Influence Market ?Sentiment Interest rates Trends in interest rates are one of the most significant factors influencing market sentiment, as interest rates play a huge role affecting the supply and demand of currencies Every currency in the world has interest rates attached to them, and these rates are decided by central banks. For example, the Fed in the US determines the country’s interest rates; the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sets Japan’s interest rates; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decides on New Zealand’s interest rates and so on. Some currencies have higher interest rates than others, and these are usually the currencies that attract the most attention from savvy international investors who are always looking across the global landscape in the continual search for a better interest rate yield on fixed-income investments. This, of course, also depends on the geopolitical or economic risks of that particular currency. Just like when a bank lends money to a higher-risk borrower, high-risk currencies require a significantly higher interest rate for investors to consider keeping money in those currencies ?What causes fluctuations in interest rates The value of money can and does decrease when there is an upward revision of prices of most goods and services in a country. Generally, when a country’s economy expands or when energy costs go up, goods ranging from clothing, food to computers, and services ranging from public transport to spa treatments get more expensive, thus eroding the value of money. The nice word for this erosion in value is, of course, inflation Controlling inflation Central banks are responsible for ensuring price stability in their own country, and one of the ways they employ to fight inflationary pressures is through the setting of interest rates. If inflation risks are seen to be edging upward in, say, the US, the Fed would raise the federal funds rate, which is the rate at which banks charge each other for overnight loans. When the overnight rate is changed, retail banks will change their prime lending rates accordingly, hence affecting businesses and individuals. An increase in interest rates is an attempt to make money more expensive to borrow so that there will be a gradual decrease in demand for that currency, thus slowing down an overheated economy. The opposite scenario is true too: when a country faces deflation, or even decreased inflation, which is often the result of decreased spending, whether by the government, consumers or investors it prompts the central bank to lower interest rates so as to stimulate spending Interest rates and currencies The most important way in which interest rates can influence currency prices is through the widespread practice of the carry trade A carry trade involves the borrowing and subsequent selling of a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate, then using the funds to buy a currency which gives a higher interest rate, in an attempt to gain the difference between these two rates – which is known as the interest rate differential. The trader is paid interest on the currency he or she is long in, and must pay interest on the currency he or she is shorting. This difference is the cost of carry. Therefore, a currency with a higher interest rate tends to be highly sought after by investors looking for a higher return on their investments Rising interest rates in a country tends to strengthen that country’s currency relative to other currencies as investors exchange other currencies to buy the currency of that country when they transfer their assets into the country with the higher interest rates. The increased demand for that particular currency will thus push up the currency price against other currencies For instance, in 2005 there was a strong interest among Japanese investors to invest in New Zealand dollar-denominated assets due to rising interest rates in New Zealand. The then near-zero interest rates in Japan forced a lot of Japanese investors to look outside of their country for better yields on cash deposits or fixedincome instruments. See New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen (Nov 2004 – Dec 2005 نتابع |
رد: Winning Stratgies
نتابع تأتير سعر الفائدة الموضح على الشارت التالي http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/178_01292185388.png |
رد: Winning Stratgies
When forex traders anticipate this kind of situation, they become more inclined to buy that high-interest-rate currency as well, knowing that there is likely to be massive buying interest for that currency For example, if the Fed announces a series of interest rate hikes in the US, whereas the Bank of Japan has no intention to raise rates in Japan, there is bound to be more buying interest for USD/JPY, thus pushing up the US dollar against the Japanese yen, and even possibly against other currencies as well. This situation occurred in 2005, which caused USD/JPY to rally around 1900 pips from the start of the year to December 2005, as you can see from Figure 5.2. This divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan had created a very bullish US dollar sentiment in the market, attracting more and more traders to long USD/JPY http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/178_01292185782.png So, in general, rising interest rates in a country should boost the market sentiment regarding the currency of that country The opposite is true too: when interest rates are cut in a country, that would result in quite a bearish sentiment regarding the currency of that country, and traders .would be more willing to sell than buy that particular currency |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Economic growth Besides interest rates, economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment Since the United States has the largest economy in the world, the US economy is a key factor in determining the overall market sentiment, especially of currency pairs that have the USD component. A robust economic expansion, coupled with a healthy labour market, tends to boost consumer spending in that country, and this helps companies and businesses to flourish. A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract more overseas investments into the country, as investors .generally prefer to invest in a solid economy that is growing at a steady pace Investments pouring into a country requires the currency of that country to be bought in exchange of other currencies; this increased demand for that country’s currency should cause that currency to strengthen against other currencies. Forex traders, expecting this consequence, will put on their bullish cap to buy that currency before the investors do :Some of the most important indicators of a country’s economic growth include 1Gross Domestic Product (GDP 2the unemployment rate, and 3trade balance data These are explained below |
رد: Winning Stratgies
1GDP The GDP measures the total value of all goods and services that are originated from the country; the GDP figure indicates the rate of the country’s expansion or contraction based on output and growth. A healthy GDP figure usually adds bullish sentiment to the currency of that country, especially if it exceeds the market’s expectations 2Unemployment rate The unemployment data reports the state of the labour market of a country. The lower the unemployment rate, the more positive it is for the country’s economy, and hence its currency, as consumers would feel more confident about spending if they have jobs, and that would eventually impact on companies and businesses in the country, generating more output 3Trade balance data Another widely watched economic indicator is the trade balance data. Trade balance measures the difference between the value of imports and exports of goods and services of a country. If a country exports more than it imports, it has a trade surplus. If imports exceed exports, then the country will end up with a trade deficit which does not bode well for that country’s currency because that currency has to be sold to buy other foreign currencies in order to pay for those imported goods and services For example, if the US imports an increased amount of goods and services from Europe, US dollars will have to be sold in exchange to buy euros to pay for those imports. The resulting outflow of US dollars from the United States could potentially cause a depreciation of the US dollar against the euro or other currencies, and that can affect market sentiment surrounding the USD. The opposite scenario is true for a country that is experiencing a trade surplus. However market sentiment of a currency can still be bullish despite that country having a trade deficit, as the net amount of trade deficit could be covered by an equivalent or greater amount of capital investment pouring into that country, and thus would not be a cause for concern Geopolitical risks Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a country’s foreign or domestic policy affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or regional zone Global geopolitical uncertainties such as terrorism, transitional change of government or nuclear threats can cause investors to lose faith in some particular currencies, and they may prefer to shift their assets into a safe haven currency when these circumstances arise. Market sentiment is very sensitive to such geopolitical developments, and can cause a strong bias towards a particular currency For example, during periods of high tension in the Middle East in 2006, the market formed a very bullish sentiment towards the US dollar, which became the preferred currency to hold in such turbulent times, replacing the traditional status of the Swiss franc as the safe haven currency. Forex traders should be keenly aware of the current geopolitical environment in order to keep track of any potential change in market sentiment, which could impact currency prices |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Ways of Measuring Market Sentiment The mood of the market depends mainly on what the majority of traders think about the current market situation. But how can you get an idea of the overall sentiment of the market? You can do so by reading reports by analysts and financial journalists in news wires or by visiting online trading forums to see what other traders are discussing. However, these ways of getting a feel of the current market sentiment are not too accurate; you may think that other traders are in a buying or selling mood, but that may not be what is really happening in reality. Here are some :of the more effective ways of gauging market sentiment 1The Commitment of Traders (COT) report 2The market’s reactions to news releases These are explained in more details below 1Commitment Of Traders (COT) report ?What is the COT The COT report provides traders with detailed positioning information about the futures market, and is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated tools that forex traders can make use of to enhance their trading performance The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time, and records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous Tuesday. Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website (www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm) There are basically two types of reports available: the futures-only COT report and the futures-and-options-combined COT report. I usually just access the futuresonly report for a glimpse of what has happened in the futures dimension of the forex market. In order to get through to the currency futures data, you have to wade past other commodities like milk, feeder cattle and so on, so a little patience is required Even though the data arrives three days late, the information nonetheless can be helpful since many traders spend their weekend analyzing the COT report. The time lag between reporting and release is the main handicap of the COT data, but despite this limitation, you can still use it as a sentiment tool (Figure 5.3 shows a page from the December 19, 2006, COT report (short format displaying data for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Euro FX futures contract You can see the long and short positions held by traders in each of the three main categories defined by the CFTC, as explained below http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/178_01292275015.png يتبع.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Commercial This group consists of market participants who use the futures contracts for hedging purposes, and these commercial participants are generally exporters and importers who are hedging against currency fluctuations. For example, a German car-maker, who exports to the US, expects to receive 10 million euros worth of sales within the next quarter. To hedge against the possibility of a US dollar decline which would affect the amount of euros it would receive once converted the German car-maker would short 10 million in Euro FX futures. On the other hand, if a US car manufacturer exports 10 million US dollars worth of cars within the next quarter, it would long the equivalent in Euro FX futures contracts Non-commercial This group consists of large speculators such as hedge funds, banks and so on who use currency futures just for speculation Non-reportable .This group consists of small speculators like retail traders The COT report tells you the long and short positions undertaken by participants from each category.When it comes to analyzing information pertaining to currency futures in the COT report, it is generally more relevant for traders to focus on the noncommercial participants rather than on the commercial participants. The reason behind this is that these large speculators trade the futures contractsmainly for profits and do not have the intention to take delivery of the underlying asset, which in this case would be cash. On the other hand, commercial participants tend to maintain and roll over the same amount of contracts from month to month for hedging purposes even though these positions could be in losses. Large speculators, however, will .usually close their losing positions instead of rolling them over to the next month ?Why use The COT The COT report allows you to gauge market sentiment in the currency futures market, which also influences the spot forex market. Currency futures are basically spot prices which are adjusted by the forwards (derived by interest rate differentials) to arrive at a future delivery price. Unlike spot forex which does not have a centralised exchange at the time of writing, currency futures are cleared at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Price quotation One of the many differences between spot forex and currency futures lies in their quoting convention. In the currency futures market, currency futures are mostly quoted as the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. For example, Swiss francs are quoted versus the US dollar in futures, unlike the USD/CHF notation in the spot forex market. So if the Swiss franc falls in value against the US dollar USD/CHF will rise, and the Swiss franc futures will fall. On the other hand EUR/USD in spot forex is quoted in the same way as Euro futures, so if the Euro .appreciates in value, Euro futures will rise just like EUR/USD will go up That said, spot forex and currency futures do have one similarity: the spot and futures prices of a currency tend to move in tandem. When either the spot or futures price of a currency rises, the other also tends to rise, and when either falls, the other also tends to fall. For example, if the GBP futures price goes up, spot GBP/USD goes up (because GBP gains in strength). However, if the CHF futures price goes up, spot USD/CHF goes down (because CHF gains in strength), as both the spot and futures prices of CHF move in tandem |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Using extreme positioning In the COT report, under each type of currency futures, you can see that the total contract volume in each category is split up between “long”, “short” and “spreads” of which the first two are relevant to our analysis. What is of concern to us is whether the non-commercials are net long or short in that currency futures In order to determine the volume of contracts that these large speculators are holding net long or short positions of for that particular currency futures, you just need to calculate the difference between the longs and shorts, that is, subtract the number of short contracts from the number of long contracts. A positive figure shows the number of net long contracts, while a negative figure shows the number of net short contracts As you can see in Figure 5.4, the open interest for GBP futures on Tuesday December 19, 2006, was 149,800 contracts which was a decrease of 31,780 contracts from the previous week. The non-commercials are long 98,434 contracts and short 12,836 (contracts. Therefore, they are overall net long 85,598 contracts (98434 - 12836 http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/178_21292449025.png |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Usually, when a particular currency is trending up against the US dollar, the noncommercials tend to register a net long position since these large speculators tend to ride on the existing trend. The opposite situation is true too: the non-commercials tend to register a net short position when a particular currency is trending down against the US dollar. Knowing whether this category has been net long or short a few days ago only indicates to us the positioning in retrospect; this information is only useful if you compare the latest net positioning with the positioning figures from the past few weeks or months By comparing the latest net positioning with that of the past few weeks or months you can tell if the latest net long or net short positioning is skewing towards an extreme reading. My observation of the financial markets is that dramatic price moves, usually at major turning points, tend to occur when the majority of the market is positioned incorrectly. And since the large speculators are more inclined to close their losing positions than the commercial hedgers, it is beneficial for us to keep an eye on their net directional positioning as well as their net contract volume in the currency futures market. If these large non-commercials are positioned on the wrong side of the market, you can expect liquidation of these positions, with the extent of liquidation depending on the total volume of contracts traded in the wrong direction For example, if these large funds are holding large (extreme) net long GBP positions, but GBP is declining against the US dollar due to some external catalysts like news, they will eventually have to close their longs when their stops are triggered, or decide to close their longs before getting stopped out and switch to shorting GBP on the way down. Such mass unwinding of positions tends to bring about a powerful price move in the opposite direction which could last for a few days, and it is this turning point that you could detect with the COT data before the reversal scene actually plays out Example: COT – using extreme position 17,2006-An example of this was played out in the week through November 13 . The COT report that was released on November 10 showed that, as of the previous Tuesday on November 7, large speculative funds upped their net GBP longs to a multi-year high of +84,280 contracts, a figure which clearly shows up as an extreme positioning on the chart as shown in Figure 5.5 In this case, all those who had the intention to go long on GBP had already done so. As a result of this extreme net speculative positioning of GBP longs on the CME, GBP/USD in the spot market proceeded to decline by more than 300 pips in the following week .through November 13-17, 2006 (Figure 5.6 http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/178_01292621136.png This chart shows the net speculative ( non-commercial) positions in GBP futures on the CME. X-axis displays the dates for every three weeks even though the data for every week is shown on the chart. Y-axis displays the net number of speculative contracts. Positive numbers indicate net long positioning, while negative numbers indicate net short positioning |
رد: Winning Stratgies
In the week following the extreme net long speculative positioning, reflected by the COT data, GBP/USD fell by 310 pips as seen on this 60-min chart The presence of an extreme reading allows you to be prepared for a possible trend reversal which could occur when large speculators liquidate their positions. A mere increase or decrease of contracts for a particular currency futures does not indicate anything which could be of predictive value, as it simply shows you what has happened, but not what could possibly happen in a high-probability scenario COT data is a diamond in the rough What deters many traders from using the COT report is its raw organisation of data but that is not good enough an excuse to completely neglect this little treasure trove The information from the COT report can be transferred into a spreadsheet so that further analysis can be conducted in a more suitable format The COT data itself is not sufficient to generate entry or exit signals, as the report does not consist of currency price data, but it can generate warning signals of a possible turn ahead in the spot forex market, and can be used to optimise other trading strategies you may have so that maximum profits can be reaped from the market. Analysis of the COT report does not always throw up trading opportunities in the spot forex market, but when it does, you will be better prepared for a potential turn of tide, and be more confident in your trades. Even though entries and exits cannot be timed solely based on the COT data, it can be an extremely useful .tool to have in your toolbox to gauge the overall market sentiment 2Market’s reactions to news يتبع.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
اقتباس:
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رد: Winning Stratgies
اقتباس:
ممتاز و فوق الممتاز ياهندسة..سنتطرق بكثرة لحركة صناع السوق الماكرين و في الفقرات القادمة سنتابع كيف يعملون ليربحو من جيوب المتداولين من خلال الكسر الوهمي للترندات و الدعوم و المقاومات..صناع السوق فعلا ماكرين في متاجرتهم.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
2Market’s reactions to news Another way for traders to gauge the market sentiment is by analyzing how the market responds to unanticipated news The forex market is very efficient at discounting future expectations by incorporating them into current prices. Very often, when news comes out better than is expected by economists and analysts, the currency of that country is more likely to soar against another currency. When the news is worse than expected, that currency is more likely to fall against another currency However, if the news or data turn out to be worse than expected and still the currency price soars, that is, the market reacts in a very bullish way to worse than expected data, a bright red flag should be waving at you. The opposite situation also applies: if price action remains very bearish to much better than expected news, it signals a highly suspect price move In short, you should look out for a contrarian market reaction to better or worse than expected news. Under these circumstances, it is better to assume that the price move is hardly supported by substance, and could reverse sometime soon.Abullish price move that is not accompanied by evidence will soon be due for a reality check, just like a bearish price move that is not accompanied by evidence is very likely to be corrected very soon. If you day trade the forex market, you may judge the market’s reaction based on one piece of news, but if you position trade, monitor the market’s reactions to several news to see if the responses are still contrary For example, if a piece of news turns out to be worse than expected, and assuming that there are no pre-release rumours or leaks of the news, and the currency pair rallies to break above a significant resistance level, you have reasons to suspect that the breakout move is likely to be false and unsustainable. Even if the currency pair manages to make new highs later on, you should be prepared for a possible trend reversal very soon. Monitoring the market’s reactions to news can enable traders to identify corrective moves in the forex market Not all news items get the same amount of attention from big market players; news relating to the job or housing market usually get more attention. The relative .significance of news will vary from time to time |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Summary As you have seen, market sentiment can be used, and should be used, to time your trade and identify profitable trading conditions. The Market Sentiment Strategy has to be applied in conjunction with other strategies as it does not have precise entry and exit signals. By making use of information on the net speculative positioning of currency futures and by observing the market’s reactions to news, you will be better equipped to gauge the market sentiment and will be able to use that extra edge to help you see what is actually happening or is going to happen in the spot forex market. Once you get a sense of the current market sentiment, you can then decide whether it is best to trade with or against the sentiment, taking into account all other factors While it may be sensible to trade in the direction of the current sentiment sometimes, trading against the sentiment can also be a profitable strategy, provided that you have valid reasons to do so. For example, when the COT report indicates extreme positioning of the market, or when the market seems to be feeding off false euphoria on worse than expected news, it may be better to trade against the overall sentiment. You should, however, wait for a more precise signal that the current sentiment is wearing off before going against it, as sometimes false euphoria can last for quite some time before resulting in a reversal. This signal could be a failed breakout of some sort or some other pattern failure Always keep in mind that currency prices are, after all, the expressed perceptions of traders and market sentiment is really the blood that drives the market on the "whole. Using the Market Sentiment Strategy can help you identify the “what whether to go long or short of a currency); while technical analysis shows you the) when” by helping to pinpoint the price you should enter or exit your positions" Strategy 2 Trend Riding يتبع.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Strategy 2 Trend Riding ؟Who doesn’t like a trend ;Many traders live by the often-repeated “the trend is your friend until the end” rule they are comforted with the knowledge that they are with the majority of the market. Being able to ride on a trend is akin to making full use of the wind direction to steer your ship towards your destination. For a ship to go against the wind requires a tremendous amount of effort – one has to fight the stubborn resistance from the opposing wind. Indeed, for most of the time, it pays more to be on the side of the current trend than to go against it. In the forex market, trend riders can capture any trend regardless of whether it is rising or falling in an attempt to generate trading profits Forex tends to have quite trending markets, regardless of which time frame you are looking at – trends are often formed on hourly, daily or weekly charts. This is due to the fact that currency price movements are very much influenced by the underlying macroeconomic factors which in turn shape the market players’ views of where currency prices should be heading. With trends possibly having a long lifespan stretching to months, or even years, it is no wonder that many traders and fund managers exalt the strategy of hitching onto trends, with the glorious aim of capturing enormous profits from start to finish Trend riding is one of my favourite trading approaches, and I often ride the uptrend or downtrend after the trend has been established, rather than anticipating the move before it happens. I would say that even though the trend is your friend most of the times, one has to use a variety of methods to distinguish between a continuation of the trend and a possible trend reversal. But before you can ride on trends, you first need to identify what the current trend is, and to determine the time frame of the trend Time Frames of Trends Sometimes, people ask me for my opinion on the current trend for certain currency pairs, I reply with another question in return, “According to the past 5 mins, 5 hours, 5 days or 5 weeks?” Some traders are not aware that different trends exist in different time frames. The question of what kind of trend is in place cannot be separated from the time frame that a trend is in. Trends are, after all, used to determine the relative direction of prices in a market over different time periods :There are mainly three types of trends in terms of time measurement (1primary (long-term 2intermediate (medium-term), and . 3short-term These are discussed in further detail below 1Primary trend Aprimary trend lasts the longest period of time, and its lifespan may range between eight months and two years. This is the major trend that can be spotted easily on longer term charts such as the daily, weekly or monthly charts. Long-term traders who trade according to the primary trend are the most concerned about the fundamental picture of the currency pairs that they are trading, since fundamental factors will provide these traders with an idea of supply and demand on a bigger scale 2Intermediate trend Within a primary trend, there will be counter-cyclical trends, and such price movements form the intermediate trend. This type of trend could last from a month to as long as eight months. Knowing what the intermediate trend is of great importance to the position trader who tends to hold positions for several weeks or months at one go 3Short-term trend A short-term trend can last for a few days to as long as a month. It appears during the course of the intermediate trend due to global capital flows reacting to daily economic news and political situations. Day traders are concerned with spotting and identifying short-term trends and as such short-term price movements are aplenty in the currency market, and can provide significant profit opportunities within a very short period of time No matter which time frame you may trade, it is vital to monitor and identify the primary trend, the intermediate trend, and the short-term trend for a better overall picture of the trend |
رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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