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رد: Winning Stratgies
2Market’s reactions to news Another way for traders to gauge the market sentiment is by analyzing how the market responds to unanticipated news The forex market is very efficient at discounting future expectations by incorporating them into current prices. Very often, when news comes out better than is expected by economists and analysts, the currency of that country is more likely to soar against another currency. When the news is worse than expected, that currency is more likely to fall against another currency However, if the news or data turn out to be worse than expected and still the currency price soars, that is, the market reacts in a very bullish way to worse than expected data, a bright red flag should be waving at you. The opposite situation also applies: if price action remains very bearish to much better than expected news, it signals a highly suspect price move In short, you should look out for a contrarian market reaction to better or worse than expected news. Under these circumstances, it is better to assume that the price move is hardly supported by substance, and could reverse sometime soon.Abullish price move that is not accompanied by evidence will soon be due for a reality check, just like a bearish price move that is not accompanied by evidence is very likely to be corrected very soon. If you day trade the forex market, you may judge the market’s reaction based on one piece of news, but if you position trade, monitor the market’s reactions to several news to see if the responses are still contrary For example, if a piece of news turns out to be worse than expected, and assuming that there are no pre-release rumours or leaks of the news, and the currency pair rallies to break above a significant resistance level, you have reasons to suspect that the breakout move is likely to be false and unsustainable. Even if the currency pair manages to make new highs later on, you should be prepared for a possible trend reversal very soon. Monitoring the market’s reactions to news can enable traders to identify corrective moves in the forex market Not all news items get the same amount of attention from big market players; news relating to the job or housing market usually get more attention. The relative .significance of news will vary from time to time |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Summary As you have seen, market sentiment can be used, and should be used, to time your trade and identify profitable trading conditions. The Market Sentiment Strategy has to be applied in conjunction with other strategies as it does not have precise entry and exit signals. By making use of information on the net speculative positioning of currency futures and by observing the market’s reactions to news, you will be better equipped to gauge the market sentiment and will be able to use that extra edge to help you see what is actually happening or is going to happen in the spot forex market. Once you get a sense of the current market sentiment, you can then decide whether it is best to trade with or against the sentiment, taking into account all other factors While it may be sensible to trade in the direction of the current sentiment sometimes, trading against the sentiment can also be a profitable strategy, provided that you have valid reasons to do so. For example, when the COT report indicates extreme positioning of the market, or when the market seems to be feeding off false euphoria on worse than expected news, it may be better to trade against the overall sentiment. You should, however, wait for a more precise signal that the current sentiment is wearing off before going against it, as sometimes false euphoria can last for quite some time before resulting in a reversal. This signal could be a failed breakout of some sort or some other pattern failure Always keep in mind that currency prices are, after all, the expressed perceptions of traders and market sentiment is really the blood that drives the market on the "whole. Using the Market Sentiment Strategy can help you identify the “what whether to go long or short of a currency); while technical analysis shows you the) when” by helping to pinpoint the price you should enter or exit your positions" Strategy 2 Trend Riding يتبع.. |
رد: Winning Stratgies
Strategy 2 Trend Riding ؟Who doesn’t like a trend ;Many traders live by the often-repeated “the trend is your friend until the end” rule they are comforted with the knowledge that they are with the majority of the market. Being able to ride on a trend is akin to making full use of the wind direction to steer your ship towards your destination. For a ship to go against the wind requires a tremendous amount of effort – one has to fight the stubborn resistance from the opposing wind. Indeed, for most of the time, it pays more to be on the side of the current trend than to go against it. In the forex market, trend riders can capture any trend regardless of whether it is rising or falling in an attempt to generate trading profits Forex tends to have quite trending markets, regardless of which time frame you are looking at – trends are often formed on hourly, daily or weekly charts. This is due to the fact that currency price movements are very much influenced by the underlying macroeconomic factors which in turn shape the market players’ views of where currency prices should be heading. With trends possibly having a long lifespan stretching to months, or even years, it is no wonder that many traders and fund managers exalt the strategy of hitching onto trends, with the glorious aim of capturing enormous profits from start to finish Trend riding is one of my favourite trading approaches, and I often ride the uptrend or downtrend after the trend has been established, rather than anticipating the move before it happens. I would say that even though the trend is your friend most of the times, one has to use a variety of methods to distinguish between a continuation of the trend and a possible trend reversal. But before you can ride on trends, you first need to identify what the current trend is, and to determine the time frame of the trend Time Frames of Trends Sometimes, people ask me for my opinion on the current trend for certain currency pairs, I reply with another question in return, “According to the past 5 mins, 5 hours, 5 days or 5 weeks?” Some traders are not aware that different trends exist in different time frames. The question of what kind of trend is in place cannot be separated from the time frame that a trend is in. Trends are, after all, used to determine the relative direction of prices in a market over different time periods :There are mainly three types of trends in terms of time measurement (1primary (long-term 2intermediate (medium-term), and . 3short-term These are discussed in further detail below 1Primary trend Aprimary trend lasts the longest period of time, and its lifespan may range between eight months and two years. This is the major trend that can be spotted easily on longer term charts such as the daily, weekly or monthly charts. Long-term traders who trade according to the primary trend are the most concerned about the fundamental picture of the currency pairs that they are trading, since fundamental factors will provide these traders with an idea of supply and demand on a bigger scale 2Intermediate trend Within a primary trend, there will be counter-cyclical trends, and such price movements form the intermediate trend. This type of trend could last from a month to as long as eight months. Knowing what the intermediate trend is of great importance to the position trader who tends to hold positions for several weeks or months at one go 3Short-term trend A short-term trend can last for a few days to as long as a month. It appears during the course of the intermediate trend due to global capital flows reacting to daily economic news and political situations. Day traders are concerned with spotting and identifying short-term trends and as such short-term price movements are aplenty in the currency market, and can provide significant profit opportunities within a very short period of time No matter which time frame you may trade, it is vital to monitor and identify the primary trend, the intermediate trend, and the short-term trend for a better overall picture of the trend |
رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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رد: Winning Stratgies
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